On a message board today, there was an interesting discussion about a player and her ranking. One poster argued that this player was a top player and another argued that she was not. Apparently, she was not rated highly in the player rankings. In the final post, a fan of this player mentioned the player’s work ethic as a reason why the player is a great player and then said, in passing, that she might struggle against super athletic teams.
The problem, of course, is that scouts watch high school players and project them as a college players. Therefore, ranking sites are not ranking based on achievements or accomplishments, but on projections, which is why they are often wildly inaccurate. After all, how can a scout ranking a player off a couple games know how the player will progress? While there are physical attributes like length, height, quickness and more which are beneficial at the college level, a player’s improvement, and thus ultimate success, is determined largely by his or her work ethic and internal motivation.
So, in a sense, based on the material available to the ranking service, this player probably does not deserve a high ranking, as even her supporters believe she struggles against the really athletic players. For the most part, the really athletic players are the ones playing in college, which would suggest she is not a great college prospect so she should not have a high ranking.
However, the final poster with inside knowledge of the girl’s work ethic is probably more accurate. After all, she apparently knows the player. Of course, the poster might also be biased. Heck, the anonymous poster could even be her mother! However, if the player works as hard as her fan suggests, she likely will find a way to overcome her problems with quicker, more athletic players.
Now, the problem for college coaches is that they usually have the same information as the ranking service. After all, can you trust a high school coach trying to help his or her player move on to a college program? Maybe, maybe not. Can you trust the player and what you learn from her in phone conversations? Maybe. I know several players who hurt their recruiting chances because they did not illustrate a singular devotion to improving their skills, so a coach favored a different player with similar skills who appeared to like basketball more.
Take the player rankings with a grain of salt. They are not the gospel truth, just a person’s educated guess. Sure, they have too much power and influence who gets recruited, but, at the end of the day, the college coach must live with the consequences of his or her decision. The scouts can blame hundreds of factors which caused their flawed rankings and scouts are not fired for a couple mistakes, while a college coach might be. Therefore, the rankings don’t really matter; it’s the success on the court that matters, and no scouting service can take that success away from a player, regardless of how they project as a college player.